Baseball

MLBTR Poll: The most dangerous team in the second half

Since the unofficial second half of the season will start tomorrow night, it is worth taking a moment to look at the current rankings. If the season ends today, the playoffs of the American League will be composed of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A teams. Participants in the National League will be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

However, the field is likely to undergo some changes in the next few months.according to FanGraphs’ playoff oddsAt present, the probability of all ten teams that may enter the playoffs entering the playoffs is only 14.9%. With this in mind, we will hand it to MLBTR readers to determine which teams are most likely to be members of the playoffs.

For simplicity, we will exclude any team with playoff odds less than 3%. This excludes the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Buccaneers, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chance: 40.4%)

So far, it has been a disappointing season for the Yankees entering this year with World Series ambitions. This lineup is one of the best lineups on paper in the league and has been completely averaged so far. Rotation is also at an intermediate level, although this is easier to predict. The bullpen was one of the best in the early days of the league, but it has slipped recently. With all the talents on the roster, the Yankees feel they should be better, but their +1 running difference has strengthened their performance so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chance: 34.5%)

The Jays have an elite offense all year long. They have four All-Star players, three of whom are starters in the American League. They are one of the top 5 teams in scoring and wRC+. Although both the rotation and bullpen are in the top 15 in the ERA, the pitching is not that impressive. However, Jays encountered some untimely relief issues. Although the AFC ranks fourth in the point difference, they have a record of 6-10 in a single game (including 2-5 points in the extra rounds), but they only exceeded .500 in three games.

Angels (45-44, playoff chance: 15.1%)

There is no doubt that the Angels have high-end player talent.get Mike Trout Come back to join Otani Shohei, Jared Walsh with Anthony Rendon Will make them one of the more terrifying mid-level groupings. The problem that has always existed is the pitching staff. The starters of the Angels rank 25th in the league with a SR of 5.04, and the rescue team is not much better. Defense did not bring many benefits to pitchers. Despite the strong lineup, the Angels still scored 26 points.

Indians (45-42, playoff chance: 6.6%)

Despite the mediocre offense, the Indians wandered around AL Central for a long time.A strong bullpen and three excellent starting pitchers kept the team in the game, but Cleveland lost every game Shane Bieber, Aaron Sival with Zac Plesak To the wounded list. Plesac is back, but it is foreseeable that the team will be in trouble without a top pitcher. They still have only 4.5 games in the wild card game, but they have to reverse the situation in the difficult schedule after the break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff opportunities: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weakness this season. Only the Rockies have a low wRC+, although the M team’s base runners in the scoring position have a high enough hit rate to run at a near-average speed. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average self-reported scores, and the Mariner-50’s running score difference is the worst among possible competitors. The predictions are very skeptical that they can maintain this high-line behavior (hence the low odds), but these victories cannot be cancelled, and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

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National League

Red Army (48-42, playoff chance: 22.2%)

The Red Army has always been a simulation team for the National League Blue Jays. The lineup has always been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and tenth in running. The rotation is stable. The bullpen problem has always been Cincinnati’s failure, because the Red Army rescue team’s self-report rate is the fourth worst in Major League Baseball. The Reds played 3.5 games back in the wild card game, 4 games back in the NL central zone, and played well before the break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chance: 17.8%)

The Phillies’ lineup has several stars, but overall it is a top-heavy and mid-range unit. The same is true in the rotation, there are still problems on the back end. The bullpen has completed the league’s worst 22 saves. This is a good core, with a weak enough free cast around to keep the team at an average level. In the past few seasons, this has been very common in Philadelphia, but few teams can match Philadelphia’s top talent.

Warriors (44-45, playoff chance: 7.5%)

As one of the more disappointing teams in the first half, Atlanta entered this year with the hope of the World Series, but it has not yet fallen into trouble.The lineup has always been good, although I lost Ronald Acuna Jr. It will definitely be difficult to overcome. The pitch is good at first, but not noticeable, but the bullpen-just like the Reds and the Phillies-has always been a problem for Atlanta. At +19, the Warriors had the best running difference in the NL East, but their 2-6 record in overtime caused them to perform poorly in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chance: 4.1%)

A few weeks ago, the Cubs were in the most intense stage of the NL Central game. However, 11 consecutive losses put them at the top of the standings. The current lineup still has some high-end talents, and the bullpen performed well this year. But it is foreseeable that rotation has proven to be a problem, and management is likely to remove some players from the major league roster in the next few weeks.

(Voting link For application users)

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